There a large number of factors to consider, and a lot of uncertainty IMO.
If China ends up with the asset they may have significant control over commodity pricing. I say 'may' because it depends on ex-China refiners (such as Posco, potentially Tesla etc), and western manufacturing incentives (such as the IRA). Would China get the Manono mine built quicker than AVZ could? I think they can, it likely depended on whether they wanted too.
The other side of the coin is that we potentially see China EV OEMs gain increasing western market share, due to lower material and input costs. BYD is already doing this in small markets like Australia.
There's too much uncertainty for me to see more than a few years into the future. Watching Aus producer contract pricing is a more transparent measure of the headwinds they face. All a naive retail investor like me can do is try to buy low, sell higher.
