Running discussion on SP, page-8502

Huge country risk here with AVZ.

With the elections (or lack of) coming up this year. The country could decend into chaos.

https://theconversation.com/drc-faces-upsurge-of-violence-unless-a-deal-is-done-with-kabila-99220

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/w...ce-could-be-a-prelude-to-a-genocide-warns-un/

This recent article highlights the severe problems including  the province AVZ's deposit is in.

http://www.globalr2p.org/regions/democratic_republic_of_the_congo_drc


With the road upgrade being undertaken not sufficient for the operation of a large scale mine, AVZ will realistically have to wait for an upgrade on the upgrade to use the southern route. That will be 2023 surely? I just can't see the route East being price competitive, but I guess we will see the results of their work on that with the scoping study - Could be wrong. Will a buyer come calling on AVZ knowing it won't be in a position to produce for another 5 years or more?

Combination of factors above make this the riskiest li play there is for me.

You might get back to 20 cents in the next year on varous short term runs, but I don't see more than that with the country risks, and finance still to come and production years off.
I think new investors should be very wary of those spruiking imminent upside, especially on twitter (not talking ML , but others).  Some big holders are VERY well versed on problems in Africa, but will they discuss here?  There are a lot of people looking to sell into ANY SP price appreciation here I think.

And if you look at this commonly used mining development diagram....where is the near term catalyst coming from if production isn't for 5 years?