There are still a lot of unresolved issues with AVZ, starting...

There are still a lot of unresolved issues with AVZ, starting with the 75% Dathcom stake. The ICC decision on the 5% and 10% SPAR disputes with Dathomir is pending, and there’s no guarantee both will go AVZ’s way.

This isn’t a clean-cut mine that AVZ owns outright and is selling. What AVZ holds is a legal claim over what they argue was a wrongful expropriation. That’s very different from a free and clear asset sale. And when it comes to potential suitors like KoBold, who pride themselves on transparency and ESG principles, AVZ’s governance history isn’t exactly a selling point.

So while it’s tempting to throw around $4/share numbers, the reality could land much lower, depending on legal outcomes. It’s better to expect less and be surprised on the upside, than build your hopes around best-case numbers and end up bitterly disappointed.