Nothing will happen in the near term IMO. Who knows whether the upcoming "election" will take place? One of the major candidates, the opposition leader Katumbi, is being denied entry to DRC after fleeing trumped up charges. Another candidate, Bemba, who lost the election to Kabila in 2006, has returned from 10 years wrongful imprisonment. Both individuals have strong support, and tensions are high after two years of postponed general elections.
There are also scores of armed militias spread throughout the country with divided loyalties
Will Kabila try and hang on to power ( against the constitution) by force, and if so, what violence will ensue? The current leader of the armed forces was appointed only last month. After reports Kabila was losing control of the army, it seems he is preparing to strengthen his control to subvert the democratic process. Unleashing the armed forces could be a double edged sword.
On the other hand, if there is a transition in power, will current agreements be respected?
There's just too much uncertainty at the moment to commit many hundreds of millions of dollars.
