AVZ (ASX) Running discussion on SP

Originally posted by Deboss: ↑

Hi @Macdog ,I have been offline due to pressing work commitments……. so I’m not sure what you are exactly referring to, but looking at last few days:

Some have taken their eye off the ball………. the ball being, the company is clearly advancing discussions for project financing and offtakes. We see Dathomir 5% and we are waiting on X% from Cominiere as both are critical for financing.

Many have not asked how does AVZ Power (refer to online media report by Africa Intel) fit into the scheme of things.

Some are monofocal that Huayou being a strategic partner is a suspicious thing in that they think it’s a signal that you MUST go through Huayou. They don’t value “non-exclusive” “non-binding” terms and positive words by Huayou Chairman Chen, that AVZ Manono has a “premium product”.

It is possible some people estimate they have a tax bill and need the SP to rise

Some people are bringing up old stuff hoping to re-sling slop on Nigel…………. Maybe some are traders hoping for some pips before the next rerate, (see point 6)

We might get some initial METs as well………. It’s been some time NAGROM received the cores. People forget the significance.

I think many here are wrong in how they criticise (where it may be due) Airguide and forget JNS or Klaus as consultants too altogether, and management. At heart it is all about reputation and I see some people nervous in how they bark loudly at others about where the truth lies. Management seemed to have taken the decision to not renew old consultancies. I’m not taking sides between AG and AVZ as I can’t see the history and I would wager neither can anyone else here, though they might assume so dogmatically and have a tendency to bully in their emphatic prostrations as a consequence. So politely I ask some here to ‘knock it off’, because the real threat has been the Chinese willingness to just wait (which makes AG look bad?), and after HTO rumours started surfacing, made Huayou change their mind and start taking AVZ seriously…………. What was/is it?

Is it the fact the West is starting to rapidly change its policy about making batteries? One of our good German friends and @8horse pointed out that according to online news sources including Handelblatt, that the German and French are rapidly changing their sentiment about manufacturing their own batteries in Europe starting with raw materials. Lithium ion is expected to be currency for another 15 years and that is also giving a nod to solid state as well. We see a consortia, so far led by PSA (Peugeot Citroen and Opel). This consortia spearheaded by French and German Government ministers are very serious. CATL could still be a beneficiary but there are options like NorthVolt. https://app.handelsblatt.com/auto/t...ml?ticket=ST-2625140-cU2KkFmDZEmweerPiUqX-ap4

https://app.handelsblatt.com/untern...er-altmaiers-batterie-milliarde/24152066.html

https://app.handelsblatt.com/politi...ml?ticket=ST-2541602-jB0amMKMX5fdaepUjfeA-ap4

Now apparently there is only money in China and perhaps Canada or US but is it so?? That’s what many have been told with the Airguide contracted focus and believe it. I know Airguide since the beginning of 2018 at least have always had their eyes trained on competition heating up for Manono end of 2018/19 with US interest. But, the future has unexpected twists & turns and it has revealed another horizon where lithia is to be processed and made into batteries……….. Europe.

If you read those articles, the Chinese have also reported on the same as @8horse has spotted.

Anyway just a thought...........that the Congolese have learnt how important it is to diversify their economy and the time has come to open those gates on project financing on the right terms. We will wait and see obviously if any of the above is relevant to us. I just think Huayou, now as a strategic partner. knows the project financing is advancing and it’s not with them unless they come up with something really good. But in any case our early major holder is respected and is likely excited. Why aren’t we? Winter?

I’ll give my own update based on my own research:

Hydro Congo a new hopeful shell by TTX’s Dave Gagnon is taking ages to be registered in a timely manner (It has been 6 weeks) according to E-GUCE online updates for business registrations. Seems like it’s going to be hard to be a nuisance getting in the way of AVZ’s path to mining? (Footnote: there is a Kabila on Gagnon & Co.s shell, their lawyer Paix Kabila, but he is not related to The KabIla clan)

I think we have the JV partners and AVZ Manono staff to bat off competition ....

Does anyone realise that these %’s being given up likely need support from highest levels in the Congo?

Which might explain why the apparent HTO failed — where is it? Still lurking or waiting for the Deal contents?

And consider this……….. these project %’s we receive are they applied before or after project finance equity is realised?

Last but not least………… Huayou can see a way forward, we can see %’s being acquired but background wise, are some here just being impatient?

All the rants about deliverables by management always fail to note that AVZ operates in a JV, and so, requires other parties to co-operate administratively. I’m not saying this or that could have been done better, but do note, we’ve been given clues on how AVZ is trying to wrap this up for project finance…………. it’s ‘multifaceted inter-dependency’. My assumption is Dathomir will want to see Cominiere signing and AVZ Power acquisitions lined up, which will then catalyse, the Deal?

I note that AVZ has signed registration of AVZ Power as early as December 2018, but only after the election was it filed and registered finally in April. So there was a good 4-5 months background argy bargy before we found out via that online source……………Just some perspective on one example.

One last thing while I’m at it, Zoe Kabila, for Manono mayor, now Governor of Tanganyika has tweeted recently something enigmatic, that, the old colonial masters are coming back and that Congo needs them.

Obviously that’s not China.

All IMO & DYOR

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Hi @Deboss

Thankyou for taking the time out in this nice solid post. Always makes a lot of sense and easy to understand.

If I ever question few a things of this forum I try to resort back to some things from the AVZ presentation you went to in Sydney a while back.

Anyway great post.... patience :)