AVZ 0.00% 78.0¢ avz minerals limited

  1. 9,068 Posts.
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    This is an interesting point because to be quite frank, when you work out that:
    1. The higher AVZ grade at 1.6% Li20, compared to PLS 1.26% means AVZ earns 28% more revenue compared to PLS for each 2 million tonnes per annum of installed feed capacity.
    2. The much higher waste to ore ratio that PLS/Min/GXY (greater than 3:1 has to AVZ 0.5:1) means at minesite AVZ has a much lower opex cost than the mentioned (data from their own DFS). Transport is a post minesite cost btw.
    3. Transport costs before credits are estimated at US$223 per tonne now for AVZ. Take tin/tantulum credits of US$50 per tonne (noting PLS in their DFS was assuming US$87 per tonne which is too high btw) and I suspect that opex costs for AVZ in total compared to PLS (feasibility studies based) will be similar or AVZ will have slightly higher cost noting the need to adjust the PLS credits downwards to US$50 per tonne to be more realistic). Nevertheless, the higher revenue figure for AVZ per tonne of installed capacity (refer point 1) IMO means that AVZ to PLS (based on the DFS estimates of PLS and what we see in SS for AVZ) will have similar NPVs for a 2 mtpa feedplant (albeit I suspect based on 1 alone AVZ might be slightly better).

    In any event, I find what you posted inconsistent because when these figures are provide to you in the past you still go on a rant that transport costs are too low for AVZ. Rather than posting anymore here in reply to you here are various posts on exactly this subject over the last year (many of which came before the AVZ SS studies which basically verified my own thinking above):

    Post #: 39510238
    Post #: 37635246
    Post #: 37646469
    Post #: 34174854
    Post #: 34175145

    Ultimately, for AVZ it has always been about timeframe to market which depends on the demand/supply gap after the transport solutions come into play. Everything else is just noise IMO.

    So, @Kikker1959 based on the above and based on feasibility studies do you agree that based on teh studies alone that the NPV/IRR outcomes (assuming same CIF price assumption for 6% grade spodumene concentrate sold) will be similar? Or for you is it back to AVZ transport costs will be higher than the SS, because if you do that then @8horse will be also correct in using teh actual figures been provided in production by PLS/GXY (noting GXY's latest quarterly turnaround based on their own comments was because the hit LI20 grades much higher than the average they assume in teh deposit itself and see that as a temporary thing).

    As a final point commissioning takes about a year, so I am a little surprised so far that the ore to waste ratio of PLS and recovery rates are still some way off from their own DFS, but I suspect at some point they should hit them (but because they are still a little way off from them I am having my doubts they would be fully hit btw but time will tell). A good guage as to whether those targets will be hit is what is produced by PLS in months of this years December quarter - although by the looks of it PLS might be putting in a little more 'teething' capital to ensure those rates are hit so might now need to wait to March 2020 quarter?

    All IMO IMO


 
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