Battery EVs to make up 50 per cent of global new car market by 2033
Battery electric vehicles will make up 50 per cent of car sales worldwide by 2033, and will account for almost every new car sold by 2050, according to projections by Rystad Energy.
EV sales last year accounted for 4.6 per cent of all car sales, and Rystad predicts this figure will quadruple by 2026.
The report, which looks at the role batteries can play in a net zero world, finds batteries could have a direct role in abating 78 per cent of global CO2 emissions, in electricity networks and a wide range of transport, including shipping and aviation.
It predicts battery electric vehicles will dominate the growth of batteries, with demand growing 15 per cent a year between now and 2050.
In 2020, BEVs accounted for 0.23 terawatt hours (TWh).
This will rise to 1 TWh by 2024, 4 TWh by 2030, 10 TWh by 2040, and plateauing at around 14 TWh in 2050.
By then it predicts passenger cars will account for 70 per cent of demand for batteries.
Europe will lead the growth, with other countries catching by around 2050.
Beyond passenger EVs, the report is cautiously optimistic about the potential for batteries to be used in shipping and aviation, predicting usage will start to ramp up after 2030.
“In the shipping sector, the main applications for batteries will be for smaller vessels and auxiliary systems for larger vessels.
This could change with major technological breakthroughs, for example within lithium air batteries,” Marius Foss, senior vice president and head of global energy systems at Rystad Energy.
“However, this type of breakthrough does not appear to be imminent. Aviation is still at least 10-15 years away from a significant uptick in commercial electric flights.”
He said batteries could only become a central power source in aviation if trends shift to “smaller but more numerous aircrafts”.
The report says for the massive battery uptake needed to decarbonise the world, the cost of batteries must fall considerably.
It predicts demand for batteries in electricity grids will reach 0.4 TWh by 2025, 2.7 TWh in 2030, plateauing at 10 TWh in the mid-2040s.
It predicts a large portion of grid demand will be met by repurposed EV batteries, which are generally designed to serve the higher demands of a vehicle for around 15 years.
The report projects around 75 per cent of batteries used in transportation will be repurposed for grid usage, where they will be used for another 10-15 years, after which they could be recycled.
Hydro-metallurgical recycling, which can recycle around 90 per cent of the material in batteries, is the most promising, it says.
The success of what it calls a “battery society” depends on cost.
It said there was room for improvement particularly in improved efficiency in the electricity used for drying operations in the chemical processing and cell production phases.
“With new, improved techniques and cheaper electricity, this could be reduced – a potential that will likely soon be realized in cell manufacturing.
Additionally, we see a shift towards more vertical integration in the battery industry, with battery producers moving upstream in order to better optimize the mining and processing part of the value chain.”
*To Remind
Tesla Semi may be delayed until 2022 due to battery shortage
The launch of Tesla Semi, the fully electric semi-trailer, is being delayed again due to battery cell constraints but may go ahead in 2022, Elon Musk said on Saturday (US time).
Tesla’s electric semi-trailer is subject to delays due to its high energy requirements which demands five times the number of calls of its electric cars, which the EV maker has prioritised to get production and revenue levels up.
At Tesla’s Battery Day last September, Musk outlined the EV maker’s plan to use lower energy density cells that do not use rare earths such as cobalt and nickel in its lower range, lower energy demand vehicles, so that it could free up high energy density cells (that typically use more nickel) for its higher energy products such as the Semi and Cybertruck.
At Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings call in January, Musk said, “it would not make sense for us to do the Semi right now, but it will absolutely make sense for us to do it as soon as we can address the cell production constraint.”
On Saturday, Musk updated this saying, “We are too cell-constrained right now, but probably ok next year.”
The new comment re-confirms the main issue that clean battery-powered transport may face before it can truly become mainstream: getting enough EV batteries.
Other carmakers reported in 2020 that battery cell supply issues had affected vehicle production. Audi halted production of its e-tron, as did Jaguar with its I-Pace.
Recently, Tesla forged a new technical partnership with New Caledonia’s Goro mine (which is owned by the French island nation and Brazilian mining giant Vale) in order to help guarantee a supply of nickel for its battery makers.
Morrison now claims he never mocked electric vehicle technology
Prime minister Scott Morrison has been caught out denying he ridiculed electric vehicles (EVs) in the lead up to the 2019 federal election.
Electric vehicles are back on the political agenda thanks to the new Labor EV policy statement released on Tuesday at the ALP national conference, which has shifted from a target of 50% EV sales by 2030 to a commitment to slash import tariffs and fringe benefits tax for electric cars.
But it seems that the prime minister has a short memory when it comes to his own past comments about zero-emissions transport.
At a press conference announcing the Coalition government will create jobs for Australians by creating a guided missile factory in a $1 billion collaboration with defence giant Raytheon in South Australia, the prime minister fielded a question about comments he made in 2019 about electric cars.
At the time, the prime minister ridiculed Labor’s ambitious EV target, suggesting they would “end the weekend.”
“I’ll tell you what, it’s not going to tow your trailer, it’s not going to tow your boat,” he said at the time.
The Driven has shared many stories about electric vehicles towing, and there are no technical limitations other than adequate roll-out of charging infrastructure because as with combustion engine vehicles, towing uses more energy.
Now, Morrison – who also mocked the Tesla big battery as being about as useful as the Big Banana, or the Big Prawn – has denied he ever suggested EVs were not suitable for Australian drivers.
“I didn’t ridicule that technology, that’s good technology,” he said.
“We actually have policies to support that technology,” he continued, ignoring the fact the Coalition’s future fuels strategy pushes non-pluggable hybrids that cannot drive without burning petrol as better than electric cars in abating carbon emissions based on erroneous calculations.
Shadow minister for climate change and energy Chris Bowen grasped the opportunity to juxtapose the prime minister’s comments today with those he made in 2019:
The Morrison government may have since admitted that electric vehicles can tow, but this doesn’t ignore the fact it is still heavily criticised for its poor stance on electric vehicle adoption.
But Barsch’s view on the new Labor policy is much more optimistic.
On Thursday, Barsch praised Labor’s new EV policy commitment in an interview with ABC’s Fran Kelly, saying, “This policy of the Labour government of eliminating that 5% duty differential is a really positive step towards helping bring cars from Europe into Australia in a market at a competitive price.”
Barsch says that because Australia ranks 84th in the world in terms of fuel quality, carmakers shunt 20-year-old technology here, creating big margins for the carmakers and a false sense of what the latest cars should cost for drivers (of course has the added effect of leaving drivers with a sense that electric cars sit far above the combustion engine car market).
He added that if Volkswagen were able to bring its ID.3 and ID.4 to Australia they would sit in the high $40,000 – low $50,000 price bracket, which is currently the bottom end of the electric vehicle market (only the MG ZS EV sits below $45,000).
