'That's the whole problem ;...getting it to market....When?How?How much?Who will pay? etc etc'@CazboSince you asked, allow me to break these 'problems' down (all IMO) in simple terms.
'That's the whole problem' - you mean otherwise known as the development of a world class mine / project? - YES, it takes YEARS, and AVZ is no exception.
Commenced in 2017 - Manono is an exceptional hard rock project that has been 4 years so far in the making, not including the Belgians' 'from discovery to Tin mine' last century.
Brines takes even longer to develop than hard rock. Clay deposits the same albeit STILL (after many years trial and error) UNPROVEN AT SCALE.
DLE sounds simple but alas it isn't. CAPEX intensive, permitting process in most instances takes years, differing techniques etc. Is the technique being used tried and tested, and is it ultimately cost effective / economic? Pilot plants are nice but they only prove concept & not necessarily what transpires at scale.
As with all Lithium projects (whether it be hard rock, brine, clay, DLE) success will ultimately depend on each individual project's merits and challenges. In terms of Lithium production, I prefer the Keep It Simple Stupid (K.I.S.S.) methods of processing (eg. DMS only plant to begin with). Would also rather be at year 4 of a 6 year development plan than say, the majority of our exploration/development peers and where they are at i.e. many are at a less advanced stage of development. But others may have a different view.
AVZ
'getting it to market....When?'By 2023 is the plan. Keep in mind that other than stated company target / production timeline suggesting Q1 2023, 2023 is also an election year for Tshisekedi. Back in 2019, Tshiekedi allegedly told key AVZ personnel & his ministers that he wants Manono up & running by election time. And now finally, he & his ministers have a free hand to make good on that intention.
How?OTAs >> Financing>> Permitting>>Construction>>Commissioning>> Ice cream scoop mining at/from surface >> Processing >> Transport (trucks, rail and shipping)
How much?Project Cost: US$545m inc. PLS plant, G&A and a 10% contingency
Qty: 545kt SC6, 46kt PLS
Price: Was looking like ~$700/t for SC6 and roughly ~$6000-$6500/t PLS, however price predictions continue to rise due recent demand and undersupply, massive under investment in sourcing raw materials, and a technology disruption SO BIG that IMO the demand explosion will dwarf a typical commodities 'supercycle'.
Who will pay?1. FINANCIERS. Project Finance was allegedly "80% of the way there" 6-8 weeks ago (from memory) and given that OTAs were a major condition for Finance, an MOU will basically be Finance approved subject to Mining Permit approval (IMHO).
2. OTAs. In a 'demand exceeding supply' driven market (best estimates for the majority of this decade), payments from customers including Ganfeng, Yibin etc. will be a non-issue IMO. AVZ will deliver a premium product IMO (meaning less arguments regarding quality & consistency), and it has established safeguards including 'documentary letters of credit' and 'termination rights' that exist to dissuade any foolish behavior.
etc etc'DYOR - don't be lazy IMO - seek and they shall find the answers they are looking for. In terms of project preferences, economics and scale, I'll leave these little tidbits for those still confused about which Lithium deposit types / projects / methods of extraction are the most likely to
thrive in this coming Tsunami / wave of unprecedented demand. All IMO of course.
View attachment 3099995Am still of the opinion that higher energy density batteries will dominate the EV/mobility landscape in the years to come, despite recent progress made with LFP battery designs. IMO that means hard rock projects are likely to be at the forefront of insatiable demand for years to come.
Who else agrees (apart from the larger producers like Albemarle & Gangfeng
) that we'll see an increasing preference for BG Hydroxide as a cathode precursor?
View attachment 3100082The latest analysis via Andy Miller at Benchmark Minerals highlights both the immediate and growing supply deficit for Lithium Hydroxide this decade.
View attachment 3100514And should hard rock projects dominate the Lithium raw materials landscape as myself and others are predicting, one should also keep in mind that not all hard rock projects are created equal.
View attachment 3099956GLTA and K.I.S.S. (IMO)
Cheers
Elpha
(20min delay)