Hi Anatol, firstly I recognise you didn't start the debate here.
I remember those posts back in 2017 too. I was a non-holder in AVZ then and owned GPP like you (which didn't work out well for both of us). I recall the discussion and much what you said back then on AVZ was (subsequently shown to be) largely incorrect including whether the AVZ deposit was predominantly spodumene or not. In particular, I recall a post I did at the time on tin/lithium as well, noting that like PLS if you design a process flowsheet correctly by using your gravity/magnetic separators properly that you can recover both lithium and tin from the process flowsheet, but obviously ensuring the tin goes down one side of the process flowsheet and spodumene the other. The original here -
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-capital-raising-update-app3b-and-section-708-a-notice.3218702/page-5?direction=previous - and follow ups here Post #:
37739957At the time you were stating that either AVZ is a tin mine or lithium mine but can't be both. Reading LTR they have tantulum so will need to design a process flowsheet themselves to capture both, probably in the way PLS did.
But too me a key issue for LTR compared to other Pilbara plays remains the depth of the resource and overburden to be removed which is really covered in the strip ratio (i.e. waste to ore ratio) which for LTR is much higher (more than twice higher in some instances than other Pilbara plays) than other Pilbara plays and (12 times greater than) AVZ.
Not a major issue IMO for LTR if the price of spodumene is right btw. Going back to this argument, the DRC produces a hell of a lot of copper and cobalt and if it is a conflict zone with no hope of mineral exploitation then why are the Chinese investing billions in opening up the region?
Granted transport a key here, always has been as I posted in the past, but that is an infrastructure issue that will be sorted out when the $ are spent on a transport solution from Manono to the rail head and upgrade of (existing) rail to ports. The key question for AVZ is will this get to market by 2025, because transport will be fixed up in the region (and AVZ will be mined, it will not be a stranded deposit, it is simply a question of this or the other side of 2025. The problem for AVZ has always been the transport solution and timing to it is in the hands of those fixing teh transport routes, noting that AVZ is largely not proposing to spend $ on the transport route itself (albeit reading a previous Ann has set aside a small amount of capex where it needs to do some transport works for itself only, but predominant transport capex spend is to come from others)
One of the things I would encourage some SH to do is go back and read the earlier posts from Anatol's link because you'll also find a number of SH there have moved on and were IMO often blatant rampers on this forum. My experience in this share and the outcome of GPP was what in part this strengthened my resolve that you always have to do your own research and taking profit of the table to free carry at this end of the market is something investors need to strongly consider for their own means. It is why a sold a parcel of my AVZ shares back in 2017 as I stated at the time.
Having said that I can understand your response given you were tagged into a response.
Whilst I understand these comparisons, ultimately for LTR it does boil down to what happens to the SP after the initial excitement of the find wades. AVZ/PLS/AJM have passed the stage LTR is at - LTR is still at the 'excitement of the find stage'. It is what happens after that stage that is a key, so comparisons at this stage between the two are fraught with issues IMO.
LTR is sentiment driven stage, whilst AVZ is at the stage that initial euphoria has gone and missed timelines are impacting SH sentiment here (albeit improving of late in terms of SH communication and strategy to market but not translating to SP gains).
The way I would say this is that LTR market cap is 1/4 of PLS and nearly 100% of AJM and 40% of GXY. The latter three are producers who have installed significant capex. From recollection, AJM/PLS Australian have a decent measured/indicated resource against LTR (whilst GXY has no debt, a depleting resource base from recollection but obviously is cashed up to buy a resource and/or explore strongly to see whether it can prove up more resource in the area of its mine).
When you compare LTR/AVZ to existing producers need to explain IMO why the discrepancies as such , obviously AVZ has a good strip ratio and large resource which will have a low cost at minesite, but transport a key, wheras LTR as I said is at the 'excitement of discovery stage' and the existing three producers above have had a few issues of late around supply (we can debate whether it is a market issue or quality issue endlessly but that isn't the point of my post here) and price received (but they are in production).
Comparisons IMO can be fraught with difficulties and rely on assumptions made obviously. Obviously IMO the discount premium for operating in the DRC is not 90% as some think beacsue they lumpinto soveirgn risk IMO transport, refer Post #:
38674618 and Post #:
38655930 and Post #:
38656005 So the discrepancies in SP between them are partially detailed above but overall what is not helping AVZ is market sentiment around lithium in general, whilst as I said LTR is still at the euphoria stage IMO (which seems irrational too me given the caning existing producers are getting on their SP in Australia).
An Offtake and/or financing and AVZ will rally IMO but it is a case of waiting. I do see AVZ been developed - good resources always are, it is just when and hence why I started the Understanding Lithium Demand thread. My view is before 2025 too, but that comes with assumptions.
All IMO and VB drunk
