Have been reading posts from jamblobby with some interest...

Have been reading posts from jamblobby with some interest although I do not have the guts to go short. I suspect that a few might have been tempted to sell on the rapid rise on the hope it would pull back. I am also not a charter but my scientific training convinces for me to look for trends and try to do lines of 300est fit and then calculate the correlation coefficient for such fit. If you look at the 3 month trend and fit a line you get remarkably high correlation coefficient and strangely enough, post Thursday last week, returned to the trend.

As a scientist, I am also inclined to developing hypotheses to explain some observed phenomena. One then looks for evidence to support such phenomena so as to support that hypothesis. I would like to propose a hypothesis which explains the steep rise (compared to the steady trend) in the days leading up to Thursday. Everybody was expecting the inclusion to the ASX300 and those in the know (brokers) may have had warning if the inclusion in the MSCI. Index Funds are not allowed to purchase until it is official so brokers had the occasional tree shake in mid to late Feb and bought up big so as to supply the Index Funds. This lifted the price nicely so as to maximise their profits on the announcement of the inclusion on the ASX300. Brokers overbought the required number so then either lent them to savvy shorters (e.g. jamblobby - he did state that he had trouble borrowing), or sold for a quick profit. (One could do a rough estimate from the volume sold through Feb and the prices during that time.)

All of the above is just pu and rely my thoughts (and not to be construed as advice or fact) on the events hence the hypothesis. I would be most interested in anybody's thoughts that might support or not support my hypothesis.

As stated, I have no objections to anybody's contribution here so long as it is supported by fact or observations and not just a random rant to influence others here. I am sticking with my observations highlighted by my trend line and see absolutely no reason to sell in the immediate future although the percentage I need to sell to free carry is fast approaching single figures and that may tempt a small sale when it does reach single figures.

AIMO and not advice in any way.