rush hour for the final 4

Chaps

This is getting decent coverage all over the media. Its been mentioned on,

1) FN Arena on Sky Biz
2) Bloomberg news
3) Streetalk
4) The W'end Australian

So here are a few points to ponder on, b4 we hear from the company later in the week.

Interested bidders for Whole of Company (WOC):
TPG, Carlyle Group and KKR

Bidders for Ports Segment:
Shenhua, Singapore Ports, & Merchants Energy Shipping

Bidder for Haulage biz:
Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Fund

AIO's Cash Situation:
Net Debt: $4.401b
Shares: 699m
Current SP: $1.50, Mkt Cap: $1048.5m
EV: $5449.5m

Scenario #1: Ebitda from Dec HY: $356.3m (for WOC)

An Ebitda of 14x for the WOC gives a value of 4988.2m. This later figure could b used to wipe off the current debt & leave some premium.

Scenario #2: Ebitda for Ports: $117.8m (from Dec HY)
An Ebitda of 13x for Ports gives a value of $1531.4m. This is at a premium to the current Mkt Cap.

Either way RBS & Lazards will b presenting to AIO's board mid-week, before a decision is reached. So from 8 bidders, they will shortlist 4 bidders.

Note that last July, they refused a $2.9b t/o offer worth $4.40/sh from TPG & Global Infrastructure Partners, so may be, rationale previals this time around.

Also worth noting is CBA's position, they've reduced their stake, probably profit taking IMO, to 8.96% or 62.647m shares in AIO.

We shall find out more about this later in the week once the bids are reviewed.

cheers