The Winter offensive will happen 100%, it is just the matter of WHEN. Keep in mind that we do not know the dynamics of behind the stage games and do not have full picture of secret diplomacy, let alone intel. Russia is, indeed, in full NATO demilitarization mode, so much so that one French general with Russian name--Yakovleff--speaking on French TV channel LCI proposed to bomb May 9th Parade on the Red Square (in Russian). This shows you a complete helpless rage of many in the West and this factor--helplessness often results in utterly irrational decisions--should also be considered in Kremlin. I am sure they know this and do consider it.
So, the offensive may start this December, it may start in February or March. We'll see. If to believe this map , Russians already captured Bakhmut's plant of champagnes and methodically clear VSU from the fringes of the city.
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