Analysts don't understand the impossibility of reversing the flow of grain (importing) when it has only ever travelled in one direction (exporting) and this is purely related to infrastructure ... same issue going to confront WA. Already trucking in oats from SA.
Inputs shortage menaces Russia spring grains-lobby-UPDATE 1
Friday November 26, 2010 GRAIN-RUSSIA/PROSPECTS (UPDATE 1)* Sowing in 2011 may be hit by lack of fertiliser, equipment * Such shortages, as well as drought, hit this year's crop * Govt grain stocks may be insufficient to cover demand
MOSCOW, Nov 26 (Reuters) - A shortage of fertiliser and equipment could foil Russian government plans to increase the area sown with spring crops in 2011, Russian Grain Union president Arkady Zlochevsky said on Friday. "There may be no increase in the (spring) sowing," Zlochevsky told an agricultural conference. "Taking into account that we have less fertilisers than a year ago and we have stopped buying new machinery...this will inevitably affect next year's crop."
He said that losses of 35 million-40 million tonnes of grain this year were caused not only by severe drought, but also underinvestment in fertiliser and agricultural equipment.
"Some 60 percent resulted from lack of inputs."
Russia harvested only around 60 million tonnes of grain in 2010, down from 97 million in 2009 and 102 million in 2008.
Zlochevsky aid that it was not possible to transfer 5 million to 6 million tonnes of surplus grain from southern regions to other parts of Russia.
"We should understand that it is technically impossible to ship the surplus from the south until the end of the season," he said. "Physically, 5 or even 6 million tonnes of southern grain will not be shipped out."
He added that another obstacle to grain shipments were outbreaks of highly contagious African Swine Fever in southern Russia, and the equipment to disinfect grain there was scarce.
"This means that the regions hit by the drought will soon eat their grain up," he said. "The situation is such that even the government intervention stocks, despite being huge, may prove to be insuficient to cover the acute demand."
Andrei Sizov Sr., president and CEO of SovEcon agricultural analysts, told Reuters Insider television on Friday that the 2011 crop would be around 80 million tonnes.
"The 2011 crop will be below average, but still better than this year after the drought," the leading analyst said. (Reporting by Aleksandras Budrys, editing by Anthony Barker)
