These are projections, based on the expectation that past growth would continue. All such projections are grounded in a pre-covid, pre-war, pre-Xi losing his mind, world-view. But facts change, eh? On any reasonable metric (other than official Beijing statistics) be it industrial activity, construction, traffic, tourism, electricity consumption, China is likely currently in recession. Given its dire demographic situation, its housing implosion, global geopolitics, and manufacturing moving back out of China en masse, there is no clear way back to growth for China... eh?
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