If Putin goes down, I think there's no way Medvedev would succeed him, as Medvedev is seen as his little mini-me. Medvedev is getting increasingly unhinged with his rants about Anglo Saxons and Poles, as he knows he will go down with Putin.
If the Ukraine adventure fails catastrophically as I expect it will, Putin's replacement will likely be someone who has been critical of him for a long time, but from a nationalist, not liberal, perspective, and my money is on Girkin.
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