attackers lose about 3:1 in casualtis compared to defenders...

attackers lose about 3:1 in casualtis compared to defenders
everyone who knows anything about warfare use that as a guide
For months Wagnrs were advancing over vacant ground and taking huge causalties .

there can be no doubt Wagners suffered horrendous casualties in Bakhmut and certainly more than the UAF
we saw a while back Wagner couldn't man the flanks and now they don't have enough soldiers to fight in Bakhmut and other russian units have been called in to support them
(you asserting some BS doesn't make it true )

UAF have had 40,000 troops kept in reserve , training and preparing for the offensive so they will be fresh .
What I would expect to see is a couple of advances at different points to the south .
One as a diversion to keep the russ guessing for a while and the other developing into a very focussed drive south to split the forces .

Unlike you I don't pretend to have more knowledge than I actually have so I can't predict the degree of success but would expect it in the next month .