listened to all that... have great respect for both.... but i'm of the opinion that ukraine has nothing in the tank left....apart from rhetoric. And lets be serious about their achievements to date.... they took back territory the Russians vacated. However once the resources were in place to secure territory, the Ukrainians have been able to take back exactly NOTHING.
The creme of the crop are dead What they have as a fighting army left now, are mostly made up of demoralised, scared, untrained men.
Weaponry - a mish mash of equipment lacking in logistical support...and much less experience in how to operate to maximum effect.
the bakhmut disaster difficulty to hide
on the opposite side (whats waiting for them) is a replenished, rested, well trained, well equipped army, dug in with superior air defence and attack capabilities.
we know the Russians have been holding back on the best of their equipment, and capability, relying on Wagner in front line surgical battles coupled with saturation artillery bombardment.
let me ask you a question.... if as Gonzalo and Mark believe the Ukrainians are preparing for an attack then presumably not far from where they intend to attack there would be troops gathering, equipment marshalling yard's setting up..... ammunition fuel dumps being set up.....how do you hide an army, presumably big enough to cause damage, from the enemy?
Russian have spy satellites just like America.... Chinese also....
if you were a Russian general and saw troops massing, equipment, fuel ammo dumps....would you not send in a few missiles and blow them up before the attack? or would you wait patiently all the while your enemy is practically gloating of an imminent attack.
nah....doesn't make any sense.
as to "surprise"....eg surprise weapons?....maybe the US gives them ATACMS?.....which hit deep into Russia? this would gift Russia the excuse to wipe out Kiev.....potentially leading to regime collapse
Russia has played this calmly, systematically, incrementally, step by step.
They have their boot firmly planted on Kievs neck - Social fabric destroyed, half the population uprooted, generational damage. Economically devastated Politically losing capital week by week with revelations of deep corruption, grifting.
Gonzalos take, that regime collapse & change is likely....is also my view....and that at this point of weakness the kremlin will attempt to take all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper.....this might occur in 6 months or 6 years. All really depends on how long the existing septic regime can hang on as a rump state.
