Yeah. The FSB have human assets in the Ukraine armed forces who are no doubt expert at ensuring the promotion and retention of the wrong people. I understand Ukrainian soldiers view themselves as the paper (red tape) army.
Many Ukrainian politicians are similarly nobbled. As we read in the MSM that it's on the political front that Putin may get what he wants without military cost or sanctions.
Poor Ukrainian leadership aside, Russia knows the Ukraine army (for all it's deficiencies) is battle hardened and preparing for contingencies. The Ukrainians have real time access to US satellites also. There would be no walk over and a Ukrainian strike back into Belarus could also happen. Russia's ability to get intel on what the Poles may or may not do could be hazy.
Influencing greedy politicians is the easy logical path for Putin to follow but decisions on either side won't necessarily be logical.
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