One of the most perplexing moments of the war so far has been the Yevgeny Prigozhin-led mutiny by Wagner mercenaries, that was called off almost as quickly as it started.
Prigozhin was supposedly exiled to Belarus by Vladimir Putin - but has since been photographed back in St Petersburg, at a summit between the Kremlin and African leaders.
It's raised eyebrows when other critics who have merely criticised the Kremlin, like Alexei Navalny, have been sentenced to decades in penal colonies.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Bellingcat's lead Russia investigator Christo Grozev had a stark prediction.
"Putin went on TV and called Prigozhin a traitor," he says.
"Everyone knows what they do with ‘traitors’, and Putin hasn’t done that. He wants to see him dead [but] he can’t do that yet."
Mr Grozev predicted: "In six months, Prigozhin will either be dead or there will be a second coup.
"I’m agnostic between the two but I can’t see neither of these happening. [...] You can hold me to it."Mr Grozev also touches on the Russian president's longer-term strategy, provided he can't win the war any time soon.
"Putin’s strategy in the Ukraine war is clearly to delay any military outcome until the US elections," he said
"He hopes western support will be throttled by a Trump victory.”
