Initial over confidence in hegemon weaponising USD. You can see that desperation translated to further NS pipe bombing then the oil price cap. On the contrary, Russian economy going from strength to strength.
Besides the obvious multi-polar world mechanics, the attrition conflict exposed the entire NATO mic infrastructure from hardware stockpile to the ammo deficits.
Ukr literally paid for expired everything military supplied but at premium prices, lost the entire productive East, now seemingly made trouble with Poland. I suspect Poland led them to a trap where she will try to inherit lost historical West Ukr. Zel$ has been a trapped primate for a long time and the peanut ration is being cut linearly.
AFU eventually will not stomach anymore blood bath and will rely on Ms Andis' of this world to carry on. The ball is firmly in Putin's court, he will decide the time, the attrition rate and all the criteria for a deal.
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