SITREP 10/27/23: Ukraine's Prospects Dim as Russian Gains Grow

SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER

28 OCT 2023

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There are several important Russian breakthroughs in Avdeevka, which are now being bitterly confirmed by Ukrainian sources. It’s now without doubt that both sides have gone “all in” and Avdeevka has in fact become the de facto central battlefield to define the latter part of this year.

Before I wasn’t certain whether Avdeevka may just be a ruse or misdirection from Russian command, or perhaps even a ‘testing of the waters’ just to see if it’s worth committing a large force there, sort of how Ugledar was in early 2023. They never meant Ugledar to be a massive “all in” committed operation, unless the early tests proved that Ukrainian defenses there were weak.

But here, it has become clear that Russia has gone all in and will not stop until it’s captured, no matter how stiff the Ukrainian defense is. In short, Avdeevka is set to become the new Mariupol, Lisichansk-Severodonetsk, and Bakhmut.

But some have correctly pointed out that there’s actually another, more distant battle which Avdeevka resembles much more closely. That of 2015’s Debaltsevo—famed for its unprecedented defeat of Ukraine’s JFO/ATO troops in what became one of the first big ‘cauldrons’ which placed the term on the map for a new generation of would-be armchair generals and war historians.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-102723-ukraines-prospects

Ukraine is getting smashed by Russian forces, Russia continue to advance methodically. Its only a matter of time now.