The Russian economy has proven remarkably resilient thanks...

The Russian economy has proven remarkably resilient thanks mainly to strong energy prices and closer ties being built with China & India. The war in the middle east should continue to underpin strong energy prices which should keep Russia in the game.

Given the resilience of the Russian economy I struggle to see a scenario when Putin is overthrown especially as historically he has been popular with the general population who know how bad things can get in Russia when the government is in shambles (ie Yeltsin).

What we are seeing playout now in the American congress with resistance to the latest Ukraine funding package may well decide the war.

My uninformed take is I think the clock is ticking on unlimited Western aid and I think on what we have seen so far of the Russian economy it has the staying power to wait out a collapse in Western support which will decide the war.

As you say, we will see!