Interesting perspective.Copied...

Interesting perspective.

Copied from:
https://x.com/Tendar/status/1757730100831723962?s=20

There is indication that Putin tried to freeze the conflict in Ukraine by bypassing the Ukrainian leadership and talk to the US, which understandably rejected the request. Ukraine is an independent nation and is the only one to be addressed, but that is not the real topic.The real topic is that this very move is very revealing. Just like the constant Russian yelling that Ukraine should “surrender already”, it tells us that Russia is not in that shape to have a long war. If they could win this war, they would have done it long ago. They already stopped claiming that they intend to take Ukraine as “careful”as possible, because it wasn’t possible to sell that garbage even to their brain washed audience. They simple cannot succeed. Aside from the military failure, the economy is a far greater concern for Moscow. The Russian economy is basically a war economy which produces zero permanent value. Every destroyed tank, every fired grenade, every sunk ship is equal to a GDP loss. The long-term prognostications for Russia’s economy and future altogether are absolutely grim. While all industries in the world invest in automation, IT, AI, new technologies in general, is Russia caught in retrofitting T-62 and T-55, which after costly deployment get burned the very next month. I doubt that I have to explain too much how much “value” this produces for humankind in the 21st Century. If the Russian economy wants to have even a theoretical chance of survival then it needs this war to be ended right now. What comes on top are the Ukrainian efforts to undermine the Russian energy sector. We saw so far only small efforts to destroy Russian energy ports and infrastructure but it already caused significant losses. Russia can barely repair its current equipment and when it comes to extending their production facilities in the energy sector they are (or better were) completely reliant on Western companies. When Ukrainians succeed in destroying the energy ports, which are sitting ducks, then the blood of Russia’s economy is getting drained.The situation for the Russian work force is dire as well. The Russian “gains” in Ukraine are still minuscule if at all and come at a cost which are beyond any reasonable cost-benefit ratio. Every killed Russian soldier is another loss for the economy. Even the (yet) living Russian soldier is not available for the economy and we haven’t even covered the tens of thousands permanently maimed who will need a lifetime of care.Russia is in a far worse shape than many realize. This war, which was started by Putin, is a Vietnam and Afghanistan on steroids. The Soviet Union, which was 10 times more powerful and had back then far less competition when it comes to industrial capacity, couldn’t survive this kind of grind. I’m sure that almost everyone in Russia’s oligarchy is aware of this fact and behind closed doors is begging for a pause.Therefore, I find the Reuters news plausible. This and the frantic and desperate effort by Russia and its lesser Western minions to stop the military aid package for Ukraine returns a very coherent picture that when the West supports Ukraine in a steady and continuing fashion then we will inevitably reach Russia’s breaking point. This point can be tomorrow, next month, or next year, depending how long Putin can dodge the bullets in his palaces, but the point will eventually come when the Western resolve is steady. Sometimes I read from the detractors that the newest military aid package has “no strategy”, but nothing could be fairer from truth. There is a strategy and just laid it out.The course is clear. Help Ukraine, increase the output of military gear, increase sanctions, close sanction holes and tell Putin that there is no other way for him than to go. And if Vladimir responds with the sentence “only over my dead body” then we shall reply:So be it.#Ukraine#Russia