Ukraine particularly are short of shells ....they have had to retreat to more defensible positions west of Avdiivka russia has been nibbling ground elsewhere too as the russ fire ten times what Ukraine are able to .....not enough to support their territory at present
this will change in June with the arrival of a big batch of shells ....somewhere about that time the first of the F-16's set to arrive too so a window of opportunity for russia until then .....to some extent that window will be hampered by the mud season
this of course is the main game ....but there are other significant happenings ......
1.Ukraines effective exclusion of all russ ships from the western Black Sea 2.. the mitigation of russias air advantage by pushing back russian plane use and air bases further east . 3. the destruction of a portion of russias oil refining capacity 4.the occupation of Belgorod by free rusians and the inability/unwillingness for russia to remove them 5. the strong financial support for Ukraine from Europe
the elephant in the room is obviously the US aid package which is starting to look ever more likely
all these are simply facts that almost all of us are well aware of .......I ask these questions in the context of all of the above .......has russia made enough of their opportunity of the time of Ukrainian shortages ??? and Have they taken ENOUGH ground to justify the heavy loss of equipment and men ??
