Impact assessment of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries
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It is crucial to note that the drone attacks target only oil refineries; thus, they do not directly impact Russian crude oil exports. Disruptions to transport and delivery mechanisms like pipelines, terminals, or carriers, may have impacted prices in a different, substantial way. Russian exports of petroleum products have remained the same in March compared to February. It could be attributed to rebuilding refining capacity, selling existing stocks, or prioritising exports over the domestic market, although the latter seems less probable. A lack of excess crude oil storage may mean that Russia will have to export more crude oil in the upcoming weeks, threatening the commitment to OPEC+ stating that it would cut exports in Q1 of 2024. Since late February, when the drone strikes began on Russian refineries, there has been a noticeable decline in the production of oil products in the Russian market. Data from Rosstat indicates a consistent decrease in output over the past five weeks. For instance, diesel production has fallen by 16%, from 839 thousand tonnes in the 10th week of 2024 to 754 thousand tonnes in the 1
