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pibroch

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23/04/24

11:31

Post #: 73472989
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Originally posted by tangs: ↑

worth remembering that these figures are provided by russia during a time of war ......naive to think russia haven't " massaged " to some extent

forget the GDP - bouyed by war industries which are simply a net cost to the economy

I take this from the conclusion .....

"In the short term Russia has been much more robust than many expected. Many questions remain,
however. How sustainable are Russian macroeconomic and fiscal policies in the medium term? How
long can the government support last and where will the finance for new projects come from? What will
be the medium term impact of a weaker ruble on inflation? What could the impact of slower technology
development be on the segments of the oil and gas industry that require the application of advanced
technological solutions, (for example, in LNG business)? Will the new reliance on China and India as
primary export markets for Russian oil and gas provide sufficient profit margins for the Russian
exporters? While all these questions are beyond the scope of this paper, they represent key signposts
for monitoring Russia’s future economic performance."

...and this was up to last year ......before the Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries that caused russia to import some refined product from Kazakhstan

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However the good news for world peace is that the potential negative aspects in the report that you have highlighted are unlikely to reverse the current course of the war.

A Russian victory over NATO is virtually locked in.

(An imminent Russian defeat using conventional weapons would have seen Russia resort to nuclear weapons, which in such circumstances would have been her correct course to end the war.)

Last edited by pibroch: 23/04/24
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