One wonders where the truth lies
In the much-hyped Summer 2023 offensive, Ukrainian troops repeatedly failed to breach the formidable Russian defensive fortifications of the ‘Surovikin Line’, despite hundreds of billions of western military aid in money and equipment.
Kiev’s assaults faced seemingly impenetrable minefields, multi-layered trenches, dragon teeth and anti-tank ditches, and left a mountain of destroyed tanks and armored cars as a testimony for the new realities of war.
Today, drones, artillery and missiles, coupled with new ‘eyes in the sky’ IRS capabilities (Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) have made offensive actions muh more difficult than in the past.
As the Ukrainian offensive efforts wound down, Russia took the initiat5ive fully leveraging its superior firepower and better trained and equipped troops, and by using a ‘death by a thousand cuts’ strategy, kept nibbling at the 600 mile-long frontline, keeping the badly outmaneuvered Ukrainians always in a rush to scramble reinforcements to and fro.
The result, in these last four months, have been quite different than in Kiev’s case, and the localities conquered by the Russian Federation forces have now amounted to well over a dozen cities and villages.
The news of the advances are so rapid and chaotic that I asked social platform X’s AI chatbot Grok to help me with a comprehensive (but not exhaustive list). What follows is Grok’s initial list edited and complemented by me:
- Avdiivka: after Russian forces seized this key Donbas city, they rapidly followed up with several nearby villages: Severnoye, Sjeverne, Lastochkyne, Stepove, Orlivka and Berdychi.
- Pervomaiske, Donetsk region – Russian forces announced the capture of this village after a year and a half effort.
- Semenivka – Russian forces captured this Donetsk village.
- Kiselivka – Russian forces have captured part of this Kherson Oblast village.
- Novokalinovo – Russian troops are advancing in this Donetsk area, with successes reported in the center of the village.
- Otscheretyne – Moscow forces captured most of this Donetsk town, northwest of Adviivka.
- Pervomaiske and Vodyaine – These areas in Donetsk were reported to be fully occupied by Russian forces after a year of fighting.
I understand that to some, this above enumeration may come across as a meaningless list of foreign-sounding names, but one cannot escape the understanding: it’s a lot of places.
The list above (once again, not exhaustive) shows that all localities, with the exception of southern Kiselivka in the Kherson Oblast, were concentrated in the Donetsk Oblast (region).
Donetsk is undoubtedly the main immediate objective of the Russian special military operation, because Donetsk and the already conquered Luhansk were the two Russian majority, former Ukrainian breakaway regions that ignited this whole situation.
While the Russian Federation forces have imposed a overwhelming pace to their advances, so far we haven’t seen a complete breakdown of the Ukrainian lines as many feared.
But the seriousness of the problem Kiev faces can be understood by the fact thattwo Ukrainian sources– including former President Volodymyr Zelensky advisor Oleksi Arestovytch – have revealed that OVER 100K TROOPS have deserted their positions and are unaccounted for.
Now, a report comes from the battle for Oscheretyne: a ‘blunder’ by Ukrainian troops allowed the Russians to capture large parts of the settlementunopposed.
Business Insiderreported:
“Russian troops were able to take most of Ocheretyne, northwest of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, after an apparent rotational error involving Ukraine’s elite 47th Mechanized Brigade and its 115th Mechanized Brigade.
The 47th Mechanized Brigade was due to be relieved by the 115th along the front line just east of Ocheretyne.
But as the 47th pulled back, Russia’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade attacked, taking advantage of a gap left by the pending arrival of the 115th.”
The commander of the 47th, Mykola Melnyk, famous for losing a leg during the summer offensive, wrote a rather shocking account on Facebook: the Business Insider translation is “The drastic advancement of the Russians became possible because certain units just f*ed off.”
