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jambo12

43,533 Posts.

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06/05/24

13:21

Post #: 73684386
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Originally posted by tangs ↑

END GAME
Misleading title as I don't believe there is one in sight .

Each side has unfulfilled objectives and neither seem ready for peace talks .

Three possibilities IMO - 2 of them obvious
1. russia wins
2.Ukraine wins
3. at some point the two agree to a ceasefire and we get a situation such as has existed in Korea for 7 decades .
(whether this one would last as long is moot )

I think it's a long time away yet but my money is on the last .
no legitimacy given - simply a recognition of stalemate

I also believe at that point Europe will set up some system to prevent or at least make it dififcult for russia to re-ignite the war .
This a requirement , as putin is never to be trusted and any period of peace he would see as merely a respite to rebuild reserves .

Removal of putin and collapse of russian economy would result in pont 1 .
Use of nukes would change things in many ways - I consider unlikely .
This war becomes a test of stamina and will .....of course russia is bigger ....of course Ukraine have the better allies .

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"3. at some point the two agree to a ceasefire and we get a situation such as has existed in Korea for 7 decades ."

Yup, need a much bigger DMZ to be agreed upon but that looks to be the ultimate outcome.
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