putin is now saying he wants to organise a ceasefire now - where present lines become the new border - because the shell shortage is over , US aid has arrived and the F-16's are coming .......he KNOWS this is as good as it gets for russia at present ...... a sign of weakness !
what he needs is more time for his manufacturing to replenish - particularly artillery pieces . He wants a ceasefire - not an end to the war - anymore than the Donbas incursioon or Crimea were an end to the war .
Because of putins past lies there is zero trust in him and the only END to this war can only occurr with guarantees based on western force to ensure that there is no future russian invasion of Ukraine - virtualy a sure thing wihtout western muscle to back any peace deaal .
putin will likely get some of Ukraine - but Ukraine was previously never going to get in to NATO ....whether they are alloowed membership in the futrure or not ,it seems clear to me Ukraine will now get even more NATO supoort after a peace deal than before - to ENFORCE that deal !!!
I hope I'm clear enough for those who support russia to understand the reality of the situation here . The simple reality is that while putin has taken Ukrainian ground in this war - he has largely failed - and when ypu count the cost in all it's many forms for russia ......this war has been a HUGE negative .....absolutely huge .
Whoever replaces putin will have a huge disincentive to try anything similar ......russia clearly are NOT the great power they imagined themselves to be and must adjust to that reality - or suffer more .
