Negotiations between conflicted parties have to first recognise...

  1. 22,424 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 769
    Negotiations between conflicted parties have to first
    recognise the other's position and then probe areas
    of common agreement and then compromise on
    the remainder. Usually both parties have base
    red lines where they are not willing to compromise.

    In this case Russia would need enforceable assurances
    the Crimea remains Russian and that Russian Speaking
    Ukrainians (now Russian citizens) in Donbas are
    fairly treated by having a major share of autonomy.

    The Ukraine would want its pre 2014 borders restored (Crimea excepted)
    and the removal of Russian troops from the pre-2014 Ukrainian mainland

    Given the shenanigans by both sides from Minsk 1 to the invasion,
    it will be difficult to engender the necessary degree of mutual trust
    in order for these negotiations to start which leads me to think,
    one way or another that the Ukraine will end up a rump state
    which Russia will use as an example for Georgia, Moldova
    or Belarus should they consider going the way of the Ukraine
    post 2014.

    Perhaps NATO (Lithuania) blocking the land corridor between
    Russia & Kaliningrad via Lithuania would give NATO (Ukraine) an extra bargaining
    chip at a future negotiating table?
    Last edited by moorookamick: 12/06/24
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.