The Ukraine war threatens Russia’s regional influence

Putin's Mediterranean dreams are hindered by his navy's Black Sea setbacks

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vision of restoring Russia to its "rightful" place as a global power has long rested on dominating the Black Sea and projecting power in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. In the years before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin largely succeeded in that goal.

With the occupation of Abkhazia following a brief war in 2008, Russia gained control of roughly two-thirds of Georgia’s Black Sea coastline. In 2014, Russia illegally annexed the strategically important Crimean Peninsula, shifting the power balance in the Black Sea and increasing the Kremlin’s influence in the Western Balkans and the South Caucasus.

But the war in Ukraine has undermined Russia’s capacity to project power and looks set to redefine its role in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.
Ukraine has disabled or destroyed approximately one-third of Russian warships in the Black Sea.
Without a total victory in Ukraine, Russia’s influence in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean and the Middle East will likely decline over time.

Of course, it doesn’t help that Russian weaponry has arguably performed poorly on the battlefield in Ukraine. Such lackluster performance could reduce interest in Russian arms in the region and elsewhere. More importantly, a weakened Russian defense industry — which has traditionally tethered other countries to Russia’s interests — would further weaken the Kremlin’s influence.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2024/06/16/world/ukraine-war-russia-influence/