Russia Ukraine war

US Polling 'Nostradamus' Says Ukraine Raid Could Help Kamala Harris

Historian and presidential election forecaster Allan Lichtman believes Ukraine's ongoing offensive into Russian territory could be a win for Kamala Harris, and improve her chances of securing the White House come November.

In a video posted to his YouTube channel on Wednesday, Lichtman described Ukraine's surprise Kursk incursion as "one of the most brilliant maneuvers in modern military history," and said that this could turn the "foreign/military success key" in Harris's favor.

Foreign/military success—defined by Lichtman as the incumbent administration achieving "a major success in foreign or military affairs"—is one of the "keys" that comprise his presidential election formula.

Developed in 1981, the model relies on 13 true/false questions. When eight or more of these "keys" are true, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election.

Lichtman previously described foreign/military success as one of the "shakiest" keys for Harris, given the fact that the war had so far been fought almost exclusively on Ukrainian soil.

He noted that the overall "success" of Ukraine's operation cannot yet be gauged, but said that the Kursk raid had the potential to be a "game-changing kind of event."