Ukraine's offensive in Kursk has generated frontline-wide pressures on Russian forces, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
Vladimir Putin is almost certain to attempt to retake the Russian territory, which will require more manpower and equipment from elsewhere in the theatre, the US-based think tank said.
Long-term, Putin will be forced to make a decision about committing more resource Russia's long international border with Ukraine, imposing "constraints" on theatre-wide planning that "Russia previously did not face".
"The Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast and the heightened Russian priority of maintaining the tempo of offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast will likely place greater strain on Russia's remaining operational reserves and likely begin to impact Russia's ability to sustain consistent offensive operations throughout the theatre," the ISW said.
"Further Russian redeployments to Kursk Oblast would also further weaken Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations in northeastern and eastern Ukraine."
The Russian military has already redeployed 11 battalions from within Kursk Oblast and four Russian force groupings from elsewhere.
This may be at odds with Putin's strategy of grinding attrition and indefinite, incremental territorial gains, but "persisting Ukrainian occupation of Russian territory would be a strategic blow to Putin's decades-long effort to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security, and geopolitical resurgence".
