I don't "support Russian aggression " because
I don't support war ...any war...as being a civilised way
of resolving international disputes..
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia was contained
free of war up to 2014 so rather than compromise then
for a peaceful solution, both sides consolidated their
opposing views.....hence the war.
IMO this war will be settled by negotiation; not on the battlefield
because the current state of play is not likely to fundamentally
change.....just more senseless killings and property demolition
and besides Russia shares a border with the Ukraine.
IMO the compromise will likely be:
(a) That enforceable guarantees are given that the Ukraine won't join/
. won't be accepted by NATO but will eventually join the EC.
(b) That the 4 Oblasts earmarked by Russia as states within the Russian Federation
. will be come semi-autonomous states within the Ukraine.
(c) That the Crimea will remain a state of the Russian Federation
. due to Russia's Naval base being located there.
The expectation that the Putin regime will be debunked by a mix
of this war's human and economic costs to Russia is wishful thinking, IMO.
Russia has a stoic history from WW1, Russian Revolution. Stalinism,
WW2 and the Cold War , so, IMO, this war will be treated similarly.
If NATO wants to be seen globally as an alliance to prevent war rather
than support it, then it will have to compromise in the interests of
regional peace (a Ukraine, Georgia Moldova settlement) .
Unfortunately the recent attack on Russia by the UAF (equipped and financed by NATO/USA)
will assist Putin's claim; ie: that NATO expansion is a security risk to Russia and as such
consolidate his position of power.
IMO the changing mood in Europe regarding this war's economic impact on European manufacturing/
working class ,and in particular that of Germany, will see a tapering off of financial support for the Ukraine and of course
a general recession in Europe would accelerate that.
At this stage of US electioneering , US degree of support for this war
is uncertain but IMO will likely be more of the same.
PS: EZ has already been in recession for a Qtr. (see chart below)
with forecasts being far from ideal.
