Overall, a decline in business activity has been observed across...

Overall, a decline in business activity has been observed across Ukraine since March 2022. However, significant external inflows, along with the activity in the capital and western Ukraine, helped to mitigate this trend until May 2024.

After the adoption of the new mobilization law, the situation regarding business activity can be described as a collapse.

Of course, the new law is not the only culprit; draconian taxation measures, strict controls on money transfers, energy prices, and other factors also contribute to this downturn.

Ukrainian elites have been acutely aware of this dynamic, realizing that the continuation of the current trend would only diminish their resources. Therefore, since the beginning of summer, they have begun to subtly sabotage the war. This has manifested in attempts to reach out to Western influence groups that would also benefit from reconciliation. These groups could potentially become effective allies and exert some influence on negotiations. Even some spokespeople loyal to these elites have significantly shifted their rhetoric, promoting peace narratives and demonstrating to Western counterparts that many in Ukraine desire peace and are willing to compromise.

The recent Ukrainian offensive in Kursk has dashed all these hopes. Now, a wave of depression has swept over representatives of the Ukrainian elite. They fully understand that there will be no peace before winter, and they still have to endure the winter ahead. There is little enthusiasm among "the people" regarding the success of the Kursk operation, while concerns about new conditions that Putin may impose are very much present.