Foreign Affairs: The Kursk operation shifts the "balance of...

Foreign Affairs: The Kursk operation shifts the "balance of attrition" against Ukraine, as these experienced brigades are not being utilized for defense.

According to the publication: "If Ukraine had focused on defense, it would have had a good chance of exhausting the Russian offensive while fixing manpower issues and stabilizing the frontlines by winter. At that point, Kyiv could have assessed its options." By 2025, Ukraine could then launch an offensive against weakened Russian forces, with reduced risks.

Currently, however, this operation is changing the "balance of attrition" unfavorably for Ukraine. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lack reserves to respond to any Russian breakthroughs and are experiencing shortages of artillery ammunition in some areas.

Ukraine aimed to avoid symmetrical combat with a numerically superior opponent in the Kursk region, but the longer the battle continues and becomes positional in nature, the more likely those advantages will dissipate. Negative news from the front can quickly sway public perception.

Foreign Affairs compares the Kursk operation to others where Ukraine suffered significant losses without substantial gains, such as the battles for Bakhmut, Krynki, and the counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia. Holding onto parts of the Kursk region will require even greater resources. The success of this operation can only be assessed over time.