Yes, it is probable.
Please express the probability as a percentage, and provide a formula which you used to calculate that percentage.
Most (if not all) of the articles that talk about Russian drones being shot down over Belarus, all quote the same source. The Hajun Project. Which is an OSINT project, monitoring Russian and Belarusian military activity. Started by an "activist".
The project was started just a few days before the Russian invasions of Ukraine.
In March 2022, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus recognized the project's Telegram channel as an extremist formation.
The creator of the project is a criminal, wanted in Belarus.
