In war, its lead up and its aftermath the truth usually gives way to propaganda....that is one cant rely on what is said but instead on what's done.
IMO if Russia really wanted to expand empire rather than retain the use of Crimea as one of its chief naval ports & prevent the expansion of NATO, then it would have struck early 2014 when the UAF was weak and before NATO/US got in there to train/upgrade the UAF .
Instead Russia awaited until there was definite moves by the Ukraine to join NATO as per the 2019 referendum to that effect and later confirmed by the general election that followed.
And besides it would have made good sense for Russia to invade the Ukraine before the US/NATO exited Afghanistan.
So unless that you think that Russia is stupid, then that circumstantial evidence would , more likely than not, lead a reasonable person to conclude that Russia waited to see the outcomes of these elections and confirmation that Minsk 2 had collapsed before it invaded.
IMO its invasion was delayed by 2 years due to Covid and war prep.
Of course, we'll know for sure what both sides will forfeit for a negotiated peaceful settlement and given the current state of play both sides will likely have red lines based og that.
