If he incincerates the Ukrainian government by deploying the Thermobaric weapons (and no need to aim except in a general direction) mllitary "success" is guaranteed; it wipes out all life in the area. It's dreadfully painful.
But if he does that he's revealed himself to be a pariah. Because Europeans like other Europeans much more than they like weird minorities like the Palestinians. This is an ugly political reality.
And they don't like their heads of state especially democratically elected ones, being incinerated.
So he will have failed politically.
In this way he's snookered. He doesn't understand democracy at all. He only sees weakness he doesn't understand the inherent strength of a pluralistic society. He doesn't understand the adaptability of capitalism. China doesn't either. The both understand how to steal and undermine.
I'm veering from pessimism to optimism and back again. Truth is the first casualty of war, it's very hard to read what's going to happen.
