As for strength of the Russian Rouble, the capital controls and restrictions on foreigners to sell Russian shares has to be factored in as well. Russia is eating into its national reserves that aren't frozen and the real pain will be felt in Q3/Q4 this year when the draw down becomes more evident. They have done well to convince us everything is smooth-sailing in Russia, when the reality is different. When the last collapse happened, the main trading commodity in Russia was alcohol. The price of alcohol in Russia is the real gauge to the strength of their economic resilience.
Sanctions aren't designed for immediate destabilization, rather as longer term punishing effects that will force changes on their economy. Eg. Being locked out of technical machinery for O&G, access to capital for development of projects, degredation of the military manufacturing capability to reduce the ability of Russia to sustain a drawn out war.
