Russia Ukraine war, page-32

"but the consequences of such a decision by either party would be devastating"

I agree with one third of one sentence of one of your posts !

"I think full-scale war is still on balance unlikely"

Wars start very very slowly.
Then they start very very quickly.

"yes they do emerge from economic and strategic considerations,"

And what do you think are the economic and strategic considerations which are so increasing the danger of a devastating war ?