The pro-Putin gang continue to push this line that Europe and the US are only harming themselves in standing up to Russia.
In a time of war, of course there will be economic damage done, of course there will be consequences, of course there will be pain felt by the people on whom these consequences fall. Of course there won’t be 100% support for actions which cause this ‘blowback’. Of course there will be those who exploit this economic pain to try to get the various sanctions removed. We should expect all of this.
If we did not all live in the shadow of nuclear weapons, the West would already be in a ‘hot war’ with Russia. The West is appalled by Putins actions, and there is mounting horror when we see the atrocities being committed by the Russian forces. Because we live in the shadow of nuclear weapons, the West is supporting Ukraine financially and with weapons, and is fighting an ‘economic war’ with Russia in lieu of a conventional war.
Sanctions - and the withdrawal of Western businesses from Russia - achieve two purposes:
1/ They seek to apply pressure to Russia to get Putin to end his invasion. They seek to do this via immediate economic pain, and the threat of ongoing economic damage the longer the invasion continues.
2/ They seek to show Russia that its present attitude of fulfilling Putins aims via aggression and war mean that, to the West, it has become a pariah state. A pariah state is not one that the West consider to be a responsible global actor, or a state that the West consider they can do business with any longer.
Having written the above, I anticipate the howls of outrage from the pro-Putin gang, the cries that the West is only shooting itself in the foot, that Ukraine is not worth it, that sanctions won’t work, cries of ‘whataboutism’ as regards the past behaviour of various Western countries.
All these howls and cries are rather beside the point, because the West will not be budging from the decision they have made. The blowing up of a shopping mall by the Russians - right when the G7 leaders were meeting - will only harden Western resolve. The leadership of the West has previously held its nose and done business with Putin - even though they were fully aware that he was a despotic gangster presiding over a mafia state. But he has now crossed a ‘red line’ in the eyes of the West, committing to acts of aggression which are ‘beyond the pale’. The Western leaders know that there responses will cause pain in their own countries. These actions will drive inflation. These actions will drive hard decisions around energy supply. These actions will lead to economic damage in their own countries. But these are the known consequences of war. These consequences are age old and well known. And all these Western leaders ultimately blame Putin for finally going so far that they can no longer turn a blind eye to the path he has put Russia on. These Western leaders are determined to make a stand here and now, and to look upon Russia as a ‘pariah state’ going forward.
Actions have consequences. Actions by Western leaders have consequences. And actions by Putin also have consequences. He has spouted a lot of vitriol against the West. He has heaped accusations and blame on the West. In Russian state media, his propagandists threaten to attack Lithuania, threaten a nuclear strike on the UK, talk about the damage Russian nuclear weapons could inflict on US cities like New York. Recently a state Duma member discussed on live TV a hypothetical strike on Dutch port facilities. These actions have consequences.
Putin has lost the European markets for Russian petroleum products. In the short term, obviously the European continue to buy from Russia as they arrange alternative energy supplies. In the long term, Russia has lost these markets. The Europeans are disgusted with Russia, they are moving on from Russia.
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