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19/07/22
17:33
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Originally posted by Crom Valen:
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and trashing Europe's economy? I’m not quite with you on this point. Europe gives every indication of now viewing the Putin mafia-state as an unreliable partner, and a pivot to other partners has commenced. Today a new deal between the EU and Azerbaijan was announced for the supply of natural gas. So what do you envisage will happen from here if peace talks between Ukraine and Russia were to resume and a peace agreement was announced shortly thereafter? Scenario 1: Europe then lifts sanctions on Russia but continues its pivot to other partners for energy supply though now doing this more slowly to protect its economy from a sharp shock. Scenario 2: Europe goes back to getting the bulk of its energy supply from Russia and everything goes back to normal as if the invasion that commenced on 24 February never happened. Let me know.
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Scenario 2: Europe goes back to getting the bulk of its energy supply from Russia This needs to happen quick smart. Russia is signing contracts with other countries for export of gas. If Europe doesnt do it soon, then even if there is a ceasefire, there may not be enough gas left to supply Europe anyway. Ukraine needs to surrender asap.