I have a few theories. Too detailed to go into right now, but their seems to be a pattern to the Ukr Himars strikes, not just ammo dumps, they are also taking out radar and air defence. Black sea fleet repositioned away from Sevastopol recently due to fear of missile attack. I've seen a number of videos of the "incident" including with the double strike, before the big one which "sounded different" apparently (lots of tourists in Crimea, uploading footage) Hard to see any missiles, just the explosion, but seems like definitely something that hasn't been seen before. Theory is Harm took out the S400s, to enable main payload to be deployed.
Remember a few months ago there was a drone strike on an oil rig in the black sea and an oil refinery in Rostov oblast via drone. They were both very very far away.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/w1sd60/ua_pov_russia_moved_the_majority_of_its_black_sea/
Black Sea oil rig attack
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I have a few theories. Too detailed to go into right now, but...
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