Russia Ukraine war, page-50666

Effect on the Russian economy for the next decade or 2, not a short term pain point.
The low value from IMF of -6% is still bad, for Russia, draining resource into arms production will exacerbate.
Thats pretty dam gloomy -6% contraction. Russia was expected to grow +2 to 3% before the invasion. Thats a 9% turn-a-round.
Since Late July the Ural oil prices have dropped about US$10 a barrel, not included in calcs.
No one knows what the IMF used for the forward price of Ural oil.

https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/special-focus/ukraine-crisis/yale-naive-lazy-imf-assessment-russian-economy

Was the IMF too cautious with its Russia report?

Two days after Yale’s report, the IMF released itsWorld Economic Outlookupdate, which included severalheadlinefindings, such as: Russia is doing better than expecteddespite sanctions(as it benefits from high energy prices).

report. “They must have accepted Putin’s propaganda naively standing on the unexamined, inconsistent statistics,” he says. “Someone should send the lazy IMF economists the facts. At least we put our methods into a public 120-page document and published it. Where are their methods?

“What are the assumptions that are backed into its forecast? Whose statistics is the IMF relying on? None of these crucial methodological wrinkles come through in its report… If you go to its ‘methodology’ on page seven of its report, [the economists] reveal that they have nothing to support their assumptions, even to reveal their assumptions.”

An IMF spokesperson responded with the following: “We want to stress that there is an unusually high level of uncertainty. Our latest baseline assessment of the Russian economy indicates that some sectors have been more resilient than initially projected, but this is not to say that Russia has been fully resilient to the sanctions. We are still projecting a very sizeable economic contraction this year of 6%.

“Going into 2023, we expect that the impact of the sanctions that have accompanied the war will lead to a further deterioration of economic output. We have a revision of -1.2 percentage points for [economic growth] next year. More importantly, we expect that by 2027 the economy will be some 15% smaller than was projected before the war, and the gap will grow beyond 2027. That is a substantial and permanent economic loss.”


Yale Paper

The paper, in sum, made five arguments. First, Russia’s exports and imports are down significantly across its key market, Europe, while Vladimir Putin’s ‘pivot to Asia’ is failing. Second, Russian manufacturers are missing parts due to massive supply chain disruption. Third, consumer sentiment has plummeted. Fourth, more than 1,000 foreign companies have left Russia, to the value of some 45% of the country’s GDP. Last, Russian state finances are strangled by sanctions, while its foreign reserves are evaporating.