Highlights from military analyst
Rob Lee's
interview with Meduza:
▻ It's not clear if Ukraine has the equipment or the soldiers with enough training to pull off the tricky work of a military offensive, but Kyiv's best bet is in Kherson, due to Russia's
resupply challenges. That said, Lee thinks Ukraine has what's needed to retake "some towns and have some success."
✧ This campaign will likely be
"attritional war" / "grinding offensive," not blitzkrieg. Months down the line, though, Russia's capacity to sustain its war effort comes into question.
▻ To raise the costs of Russian occupation in Kherson, Ukrainian troops are firing their shiny new
HIMARS at "any kind of stationary targets of command and control, ammunition depots."
▻ "In Kherson, Ukraine probably has an advantage in terms of
artillery."
▻ In this campaign, it's symbolically important for Ukrainian troops to reach the Dnipro River — both for
morale and maintaining the West's confidence.
▻ Asked about Ukrainian troops leaving their
anti-defense "umbrella," Lee says their "short-range [air-defense] system" will come with them, as they advance.
▻ Lee attributes the
failures of offensives by both sides to attrition and the loss of the trained soldiers who were capable of such feats.
▻ Russia's new
3rd Army Corps, created in Mulino from volunteers, is real. It may be understaffed and yet to be deployed to Ukraine, but it's apparently being armed with Russia's latest weaponry (T-80BVM tanks, AK-12s, BMP-3s). But there's still a lack of training and capable field commanders. Manpower shortages and training issues could jeopardize Russia's whole war effort.
▻ The creation of entirely new volunteer units (
rather than reinforcing existing formations) puzzles Lee, who guesses that Moscow might not be "content with the leadership of other units that are currently fighting in Ukraine."
▻ Russia's stockpiles of
precision-guided munitions (Kalibr cruise missiles, air-launched cruise missiles) — a big advantage early in the war — are running low. On the ground, major equipment shortfalls are evident, too.
Link to full interview below -
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09/02/the-fog-of-war
