Russia Ukraine war

Originally posted by moorookamick: ↑

I appreciate some of your posts on the war and
like you i would like to see all Russian troops
and Russian influence out of the Ukraine
including Crimea.

I'm keenly aware that Crom Valen wants to call the day to day shots
indicating incremental advances by the Ukrainian Military over the past month
If we take it that this war is Russia vs the Ukraine only , then its a zero sum game;
that is a win for one is a corresponding loss for the other.

now if we look at the 8.5 months since the war started. the Ukraine has had
say 2 months of wins (the last month and the month that the Russians were
stalled outside Kiev and their subsequent withdrawal)

That said, dictators dont work alone.
Fore example , the recent annexation of the Ukraine's provinces was
approved by the Duma as was the conscripting of an extra 300,000
military & support personnel.

Apart from it being approved by the Duma, there has been no significant
objection from the Red Army or the Russian Intelligence agencies (yet)
so we simply have to assume that they approve.

And then there's public opinon.
Like Aus, Russia has its fair share of RW Nationalists who , like Putin,
think that the Ukraine is 'homeland"

Then there's the street demonstrations which at this time despite
western media attention are a very small minority.

Which brings us to to the Russians talking with their feet.
This, IMO, is the most significant objection to Russia's
war in the Ukraine. It has been reported that up to 3 quarter of a million
Russians may have fled already and likely more to come, IMO.
These are mostly young/well educated Russians who are
leaving parents, siblings and relatives behind and, again, IMO,
this will have a profound effect on domestic public opinion.

So where to from here, you might ask?

IMO, for you and I to get our wish (that is the complete
withdrawal of Russia from the Ukraine) we will have to see
Putin debunked and likely by a military Coup and by the
look of things, that will likely be years away rather than months.

There will be a "Winter of Discontent" in Europe , IMO,
which may dilute Europe's resolve to support the Ukraine.

The West led by the USA has decided on:
-financial aid
-economic sanctions
-military intelligence
-military hardware & logistics

BUT

No NATO boots on the ground
And no NATO "no fly zone over the Ukraine."

And of course Aus is part and parcel of all of the above.

Expand

far rnging and I find the thoughts on russian support for Putin interesting
undeniable he has support ..but then possible opponents are removed regularly (or just disappear)
then there's Navalny
if russia did have a functioning opposition and the people not fed on a constant diet of russian ultra naionalism support ofr Putin may be less

one thing you didn't mention which I thought significant too was the recent TV and public criticism of putin
in a country as opaque as russia an indication that the approval is slipping (some) degree

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