Game over. Around 20% of Ukraine is by the looks of it gone. The recent talks between Washington, Kijev and Moscow are not coincidence. The truce is not far away. Putin refused to talk about the boundaries after the referendums. Work in progress. A natural barrier is a great border. Time to go home for many.
If and when Russian troops do withdraw to the east bank, their supply lines will become easier and they will regain defense in depth. Any attempt by Ukrainian forces to cross the Dnipro would be costly to the point of prohibitive.
Russia would retain control of 60 per cent of the Kherson region, including the coastline along the Sea of Azov.
So long as Moscow’s troops control and fortify the Dnipro’s east bank, Ukrainian forces will struggle to damage or disrupt the canal that carries fresh water to Crimea.
