https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/02/13/12-reasons-why-a-russian-attack-on-ukraine-looks-imminent/?sTiming constraints on military action
Given the significant risks and costs a war with Ukraine would entail and the lack of credible causes belli, some analysts speculate Putin might keep forces in place indefinitely to maintain pressure on Ukraine and/or to await an incident (manufactured or otherwise) to justify a war with Ukraine.
However, several factors limit the viability of that course of action
First, the exercise in Belarus being used to justify Russian deployments there is due to end February 20, forcing Moscow to come up with new pretexts. Keeping troops out-of-region deployed in tents during harsh winter weather has also been bad for morale and even health, with Covid
outbreaks allegedly rampant among Russian troops.
Furthermore, Russia’s conscript soldiers will see their one-year terms of enlistment begin to expire, and new conscripts will require training at base. Putin can of course extend the current cohort’s term of service, but such a move would be unpopular domestically and hard to sell without an actual war taking place. Though conscripts today make up a large minority of Russia’s military and are generally shunted away from frontline combat, they still remain an important contributor of manpower.
Lastly, delaying an attack means managing the challenges posed by Rasputina, the particularly muddy conditions in Russia and Ukraine prone to impede traffic during the transition between seasons. While the prominence of the mud factor has arguably been exaggerated in some commentary, it nonetheless may favor February for offensives over April. The evidence presented by satellite images, TikTok videos from Russian social media users, and government statements all support the same conclusion:
Putin has arrayed a sprawling war machine around Ukraine, one that now appears to be moving into final position for combat operations.
