Russia Ukraine war

Originally posted by dolcevita: ↑

Excellent interview and again points to the fact that Putin is a symptom not just a cause.

There are competing interest groups and fascinating to get further insights into this complex situation.

A few key points:
Putin's decision to invade Ukraine, was intended to export Russia’s internal chaos abroad and to stabilize the situation in Russia domestically (remembering that Russia is a loose Federation and there are internal divisions and a lot of dissension)

break up of the Russian Federation is becoming more likely with a gradual process, first de facto and only then formally. It is highly likely that at some point, the federal center just loses control over a number of regions for a number of reasons

Some regions formed battalions and sent them to Ukraine but a number of regions formed battalions, armed them, equipped them, and didn't send them anywhere. They still are in their home regions, armed as protective training, These are not ethnic republics: they are regions perceived as ethnically majority-Russian.

At this point it seems that some of these actors are basically preparing for chaos. if chaos starts it's better to have your own armed man in your own region.

When all the mobilised people return from Ukraine to Russia, it would be a huge problem even if Moscow’s structures of power kept total control over them. In a situation when Russia already has a number of private armies, this problem could be unmanageable [shades of 1917 armies returning from the front in WW1 helped bring social unrest to a head)

Military defeat by Ukraine Russia’s political or imperial system is not going to survive it, because the whole prestige and allure of Moscow would be too destroyed by that. any military defeats, to a greater or lesser extent, harm the imperial myth, but they harm to different degrees. Military defeat to America is certainly less shameful, and it could be a manageable shame. ...because it would be some honorable lost cause: we lost to the overwhelming enemy, and now we could regroup and try again in the future. [this explains why Putin is so keen to characterise the war as a proxy war with the US]

Navalny has a nationalist agenda and will probably conduct a crusade against minorities if he comes to power. Many minorities, especially in the Caucasus, are very anxious about this prospect. Awareness of the broad persecution of minorities is poorly understood in the West because these people have no representation in either Russian or Western media.

ethnic minorities in Russia are being mobilized disproportionately, used as cannon fodder, to address Russian population competition against minorities. Many of them are escaping but others need means of escape.

the families of the first dozens of thousand killed in action, were compensated lavishly. This created compliance with this mobilization, but those families that now are enthusiastic about their family members being sent into Ukraine are going to be cheated mostly.

not all those escaping the mobilisation are anti Putin, they can just be self-interested in not wanting to die. (Like Trump who evaded national service by having a heel spur, it wasn't an ideological objection.)

the chilling effect of mobilisation on demonstrations, because of the high risk of being arrested and then mobilised

Note: I have paraphrased conclusions in the interview in places for brevity, any errors are mine, and added comments in brackets.

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Wow lollipops and Unicorns all over hey, you really do live in an alternative universe don't you.!